Van Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
When talking about air yards, Van Jefferson grades out in the towering 80th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating an impressive 66.0 per game.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (67.9%).

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
Van Jefferson has been a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack this year (10.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (16.1%).
The Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Van Jefferson's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 54.4% to 49.6%.

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