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Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Falcons offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.58 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year.

When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Chicago's collection of safeties has been lousy this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Van Jefferson has been a much smaller part of his offense's pass game this year (7.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (16.1%).

After totaling 63.0 air yards per game last season, Van Jefferson has gotten worse this season, now pacing 43.0 per game.

Van Jefferson has accumulated a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (8.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).

Van Jefferson's 51.3% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a meaningful decline in his receiving proficiency over last season's 54.4% mark.

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