Van Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:57 AM EST

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Falcons this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Falcons grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
The Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.7%) vs. WRs this year (70.7%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Van Jefferson's 8.8% Target% this season illustrates an impressive decrease in his air attack utilization over last season's 16.1% figure.
Van Jefferson has posted far fewer air yards this year (55.0 per game) than he did last year (63.0 per game).
Van Jefferson's 12.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks an impressive regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 39.0 figure.

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