Van Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Van Jefferson to be much more involved in his team's passing game this week (15.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).
Van Jefferson has put up a whopping 68.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among WRs.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Van Jefferson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing a measly 53.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 3rd percentile among wide receivers
Van Jefferson has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 7.20 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 19th percentile among wideouts