Van Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 9, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Van Jefferson has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% this year, which ranks him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
Van Jefferson ranks in the 84th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.9 plays per game.
Van Jefferson has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (61.0 per game) than he did last season (74.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Van Jefferson's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 54.9% to 47.5%.

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