Van Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Van Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Van Jefferson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Van Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+429/-964).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +429 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +429.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a giant 16.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Van Jefferson to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (19.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).
Van Jefferson grades out in the 79th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.29 per game.

Favors Under

Van Jefferson has accrued far fewer air yards this season (57.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Van Jefferson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 55.1% to 43.3%.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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