My Account Log Out

reorder

Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Van Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+312/-565).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -516 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -565.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Van Jefferson to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack near the goal line this week (15.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).

Van Jefferson has put up a whopping 68.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among WRs.

Van Jefferson grades out in the 81st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.30 per game.

The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Van Jefferson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing a measly 53.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 3rd percentile among wide receivers

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

More Van Jefferson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™