Tyson Bagent TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyson Bagent

NFL · Player Props

Tyson Bagent

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tyson Bagent TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-220/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
With a 61.4% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL in this respect has been the Bears.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears as the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
This year, the strong Saints defense has given up a paltry 62.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
The Saints linebackers grade out as the 7th-best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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