Tyson Bagent TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tyson Bagent

NFL · Player Props

Tyson Bagent

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyson Bagent TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+235/-345).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -295 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -345.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent.
The Bears are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Bears have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 62.3% red zone pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
This year, the anemic Chargers defense has been gouged for a massive 2.00 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 2nd-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bears.

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