Tyson Bagent TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tyson Bagent

NFL · Player Props

Tyson Bagent

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Tyson Bagent TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the league versus the Raiders defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 53.9% red zone pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have just 120.4 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.2 per game) this year.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

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