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Tyson Bagent
NFL · Player Props
Tyson Bagent
QB · Chicago Bears
TD Passes
Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023 Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:21 AM EST
NFL Props Tyson Bagent TD Passes

Tyson Bagent TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+235/-345).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -275 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +235.

Favors Over
  • With a 60.3% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL under these circumstances has been the Chicago Bears.
  • This year, the shaky Carolina Panthers defense has yielded a whopping 73.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 9th-largest rate in football.
  • The Panthers defense has been gouged for the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.38 per game this year.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Carolina's CB corps has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.
Favors Under
  • The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.4 per game) this year.
  • The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
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