Tyson Bagent TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tyson Bagent

NFL · Player Props

Tyson Bagent

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Tyson Bagent TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+235/-345).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -275 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 60.3% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL under these circumstances has been the Chicago Bears.
This year, the shaky Carolina Panthers defense has yielded a whopping 73.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 9th-largest rate in football.
The Panthers defense has been gouged for the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.38 per game this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Carolina's CB corps has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.4 per game) this year.
The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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