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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-152/+117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dolphins this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

The model projects Tyreek Hill to notch 8.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.

As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Buffalo's LB corps has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the projections to call just 60.6 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.

Tyreek Hill's 64.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 77.5.

Tyreek Hill's pass-catching performance diminished this season, averaging a mere 3.9 adjusted receptions compared to 7.4 last season.

Tyreek Hill's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 71.2% to 55.0%.

More Tyreek Hill Player Props

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