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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Dolphins have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.2 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

The model projects Tyreek Hill to notch 8.6 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Tyreek Hill's 59.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 77.5.

Tyreek Hill's receiving skills have declined this year, compiling a measly 4.9 adjusted catches vs 7.4 last year.

Tyreek Hill's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 71.2% to 67.5%.

This year, the tough Texans defense has yielded a paltry 58.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the best rate in the NFL.

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