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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.8 plays per game.

The projections expect Tyreek Hill to garner 7.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Tyreek Hill's 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 77.5.

Tyreek Hill's 4.3 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 7.4 rate.

Tyreek Hill's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 71.2% to 64.9%.

The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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