Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -141 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
In this week's game, Tyreek Hill is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 12.4 targets.
Tyreek Hill's 80.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 99th percentile for wideouts.
Tyreek Hill rates as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 7.6 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a puny 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 4th-best rate in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year with their pass rush.

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