Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 5:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-139/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill's 81.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the league: 99th percentile for WRs.
With a terrific 7.5 adjusted receptions per game (97th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill ranks as one of the leading WRs in the game in football.
Tyreek Hill's 73.9% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a substantial improvement in his pass-catching skills over last year's 70.8% rate.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

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