Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
The model projects Tyreek Hill to total 9.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Tyreek Hill's 77.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 97th percentile for WRs.
Tyreek Hill has been among the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an exceptional 6.9 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.
The Giants cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
Since the start of last season, the imposing New York Giants defense has conceded a feeble 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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