Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Tyreek Hill to accumulate 11.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill's 87.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 76.0.
Tyreek Hill has been among the leading WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Buffalo's safety corps has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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