Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 11.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been a big part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 31.5% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 7.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.

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