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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dolphins to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The model projects Tyreek Hill to earn 12.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

Tyreek Hill has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 31.8% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

With an impressive 7.5 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill has been as one of the best WRs in the league in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.

The Miami offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Buffalo's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

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