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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to be the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 0.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

In this game, Tyreek Hill is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 12.5 targets.

Tyreek Hill has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 31.6% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are expected by our trusted projection set to call just 63.8 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 7th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Dolphins this year (just 55.7 per game on average).

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Ravens pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (59.9%) vs. WRs this year (59.9%).

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore's safety corps has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the best in the league.

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