Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +113 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this contest, Tyreek Hill is expected by the projections to rank in the 97th percentile among WRs with 10.6 targets.
With a top-tier 32.5% Target% (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill places among the wideouts with the highest volume in football.
Tyreek Hill checks in as one of the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an outstanding 7.8 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.
Tyreek Hill's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 75.6%.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.6%) to WRs this year (72.6%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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