Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Tyreek Hill to notch 10.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.
With a sizeable 32.1% Target Rate (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill stands among the WRs with the highest volume in the NFL.
With an excellent 7.9 adjusted receptions per game (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill rates among the top wide receivers in the game in football.
Tyreek Hill's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 70.8% to 74.9%.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.2 per game) this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's CB corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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