Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 10.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 31.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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