Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+110/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 11.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been a more integral piece of his team's pass game this season (32.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (26.6%).
Tyreek Hill's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this year, averaging 8.1 yards per game compared to a mere 5.6 last year.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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