Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-111/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 9.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been a much bigger part of his team's air attack this season (32.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (26.6%).
Tyreek Hill's receiving talent has gotten a boost this year, totaling 7.7 yards per game vs a measly 5.6 last year.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.8%).

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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