Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 8.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 27.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Tyreek Hill's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.7% to 65.4%.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.3%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.3%).

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