Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+117/-157).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -157.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling out backup QB Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 11.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been much more involved in his offense's passing attack this year (31.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (26.9%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
Tyreek Hill's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 71.6%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.8%) vs. WRs this year (61.8%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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