Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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