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Tyreek Hill
NFL · Player Props
Tyreek Hill
WR · Miami Dolphins
Receptions
San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022 Updated Dec 5, 2022 3:51 AM UTC
NFL Props Tyreek Hill Receptions

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +120.

Favors Over
  • The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 11.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
  • Tyreek Hill's 75.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 66.7.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
  • The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
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