Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 11.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill's 75.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 66.7.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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