Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 12.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been a much bigger part of his team's pass game this season (32.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (26.6%).
Tyreek Hill's receiving performance has gotten better this season, compiling 8.4 yards per game vs a measly 5.6 last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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