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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -138.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
  • Tyreek Hill has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 26.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
  • Tyreek Hill has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 6.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.
  • Tyreek Hill has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL, catching a stellar 74.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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