Tyreek Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 26.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 6.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.
Tyreek Hill has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL, catching a stellar 74.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.