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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-119/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -119.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
  • In this week's game, Tyreek Hill is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 85th percentile among WRs with 7.5 targets.
  • This year, the anemic Patriots pass defense has yielded a whopping 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-biggest rate in football.
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. wideouts this year, allowing 8.78 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in football.
  • When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.
  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • After averaging 113.0 air yards per game last year, Tyreek Hill has gotten worse this year, now sitting at 81.0 per game.
  • Tyreek Hill's 61.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 77.5.

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