Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 99.5 (-135/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
The model projects Tyreek Hill to notch 11.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill's 78.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Dolphins.
Tyreek Hill has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (124.0 per game) than he did last year (131.0 per game).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.9%) vs. wideouts this year (58.9%).
The Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Eagles safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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