Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 93.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
The model projects Tyreek Hill to total 9.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has compiled far more air yards this season (137.0 per game) than he did last season (131.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill's 77.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 97th percentile for WRs.
Tyreek Hill has posted quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (120.0) this year than he did last year (92.0).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
Since the start of last season, the imposing New York Giants defense has conceded a feeble 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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