Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 82.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 78.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 11.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Tyreek Hill's skills in generating extra yardage have worsened this year, notching a mere 0.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.14 figure last year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (63.0%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.45 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in football.