Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast Tyreek Hill to notch 10.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 31.0% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has put up quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (110.0) this season than he did last season (92.0).
Tyreek Hill's 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a material growth in his receiving prowess over last year's 70.8% rate.
Tyreek Hill's receiving effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, notching 11.16 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 9.41 figure last season.

Favors Under

With a 8.5-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

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