Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 84.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 85.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 84.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 10.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 31.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 122.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.

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