Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 72.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 76.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 9.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 29.3% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.48 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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