Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 77.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 77.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 9.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has been a big part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 27.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in football (just 114.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.

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