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Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 68.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 67.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 8.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among WRs.Tyreek Hill has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 27.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.Tyreek Hill's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.7% to 65.4%.The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
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