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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 68.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling out backup QB Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 11.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.

Tyreek Hill has been much more involved in his offense's passing attack this year (31.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (26.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.

Tyreek Hill's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 71.6%.

The New York Jets defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 113.0) to WRs this year.

The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.8%) vs. WRs this year (61.8%).

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