Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 92.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 89.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 92.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to total 11.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been much more involved in his team's air attack this season (33.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (26.9%).
Tyreek Hill has put up far more air yards this year (135.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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