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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+101/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +101.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (26.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.9% in games he has played).

Tyreek Hill has compiled far more air yards this season (135.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).

Tyreek Hill's 79.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 66.1.

Tyreek Hill has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in an impressive 74.2% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 79th percentile among wide receivers.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68%) vs. wideouts this year (68.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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