Tyreek Hill Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+109/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (26.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.3% in games he has played).
Tyreek Hill has notched significantly more air yards this season (122.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill's 75.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 66.1.
Tyreek Hill has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, completing a stellar 72.6% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 77th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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