Tyreek Hill Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (25.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.8% in games he has played).
Tyreek Hill has put up far more air yards this year (114.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill's 72.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 97th percentile for WRs.
Tyreek Hill's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 72.7% to 76.4%.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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