Tyreek Hill Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (24.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Tyreek Hill has posted a colossal 103.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill's 68.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded the 6th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.80 per game since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.