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Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-210).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (25.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played).

Tyreek Hill has accrued many more air yards this year (138.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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