Tyreek Hill Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-210).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (25.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played).
Tyreek Hill has accrued many more air yards this year (138.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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