Tyreek Hill Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-128/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the end zone this week (26.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played).
Tyreek Hill has totaled quite a few more air yards this season (137.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill's 76.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 66.7.
Tyreek Hill has been among the best possession receivers in football, hauling in a stellar 74.8% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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