Tyreek Hill Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-156).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (25.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.3% in games he has played).
Tyreek Hill has posted far more air yards this season (133.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill's 75.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 66.7.
Tyreek Hill has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL, completing a terrific 75.5% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 85th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to WRs: 0.64 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

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